As the South Carolina Legislature starts debate Monday, the Confederate flag could be moved off the State House grounds within days. Still, lawmakers could lengthen their deliberations and delay the flag's removal by a day or several week.
Support for removing the flag is strong.
The House and Senate voted overwhelmingly last month to debate removing the flag. Polls by news outlets indicate both chambers have the two-thirds support required to take down the flag.
Three bills to remove the Confederate battle flag have been introduced in the General Assembly in the wake of the slaying of nine African-American churchgoers in Charleston during a June 17 Bible study. A 21-year-old Richland County man who posted racist rants and pictures of himself with the flag has been charged with those killings.
The consensus among lawmakers is the S.C. House will wait for the state Senate to pass a bill sponsored by Sen. Vincent Sheheen, D-Kershaw. The Senate could send that bill to the House as early as Tuesday.
What happens after that is up in the air.
The House could send the bill to a committee, setting up further potentially time-consuming debate, or agree to let the proposal go straight to its floor for debate and a vote, clearing the way for the proposal's passage by Thursday.
Here are five politicians to watch as the General Assembly tackles removing the flag:
Senate
Lee Bright: The Republican senator from Spartanburg has been the most outspoken proponent for keeping the flag flying near the State House's Confederate Soldier Monument. Bright has started an online petition and is offering "Keep your hands off my flag" bumper stickers to campaign donors. But Bright, who has used Senate rules to hold up or block proposals that he opposes, has promised not to filibuster against the remove-the-flag bill. Instead, he plans to introduce an amendment to have South Carolinians vote on whether to move the flag, an idea not expected to gain much support.
John Courson: The former Senate president pro tempore was the most prominent state Republican lawmaker standing with Gov. Nikki Haley when she called for the flag's removal at a June 22 news conference. The Richland County legislator plans to introduce an amendment that would keep the flagpole near the Confederate Soldier Monument and fly the South Carolina state flag in place of the battle flag. Sheheen's bill would remove the flagpole. Courson said he sees flying the state flag as a show of the unity in the wake of the church shootings.
House
Jay Lucas: The Republican House speaker has revealed little of his thinking. Lucas, who can control the path of bills in the House, has not said how he would vote on removing the flag or whether he has changed his plans to send flag bills "through the appropriate process." That could send Sheheen's proposal first to the House Judiciary Committee, a move that could lengthen the debate by a day or weeks. House Judiciary Committee Chairman Greg Delleney, a Chester Republican who would be in charge of committee hearings and Lucas' friend, also has not shared his opinion on the flag. Both Lucas and Delleney are known as deliberative lawyers. Delleney voted against the 2000 compromise that brought down the flag from the State House dome.
Todd Rutherford: The House minority leader and other Democratic legislators, including state Sen. Darrell Jackson, D-Richand, will push to have a bill to remove the flag pass the General Assembly by the end of the week. Some have fought to remove the banner from the Capitol grounds since the 2000 compromise. Delays in voting on a flag removal bill only will increase chances for violence among anti- and pro-flag protestors, said Rutherford, a Richland Democrat.
Executive
Gov. Nikki Haley: If the flag debate drags out in the Legislature, expect the Lexington Republican to speak out. Haley called for the flag's removal in a June 22 news conference, flanked by the state's two U.S. senators and most powerful Democrat, U.S. Rep. Jim Clyburn of Columbia. The brutality of the murders at Emanuel AME Church shook Haley, leading her to believe that any symbol used for hate has no place at the State House. With the outpouring of opposition against the flag from political and business circles, Haley expects lawmakers to move quickly and end what has become a serious distraction for the state.
Off the grounds by Thursday?
While not assured, here's the fast-track option that could remove the Confederate battle flag from the State House grounds by Thursday:
Monday: State Senate passes second of three required readings of a bill - sponsored by Sen. Vincent Sheheen, D-Kershaw - to remove the flag.
Tuesday: Senate gives final passage to Sheheen's bill and sends it to the House. There, no state representatives object to a request to bring the bill straight to the House floor.
Wednesday: The House waives its 24-hour rule on taking a vote, a move that requires a two-thirds majority, and passes the second of three required readings of the bill.
Thursday: The House gives final approval to the bill without making any changes to the Senate proposal, sending it to Gov. Nikki Haley. As written now, the proposal would take effect with Haley's signature, meaning she could sign the bill into law and the flag could be removed immediately.
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